WorldACD Market Data has released provisional data for February, ahead of its full release in two weeks, highlighting the Coronavirus impact, but with some unexpected positive figures.
To give a clearer view the data analytics company says it is important to combine January and February data to properly take into account the effects of Chinese New Year (CNY) on the year-over-year figures. “Having thus “neutralised” the CNY-effect on the individual monthly data, the results shown could well be called the Corona-effect, even though this only started to play a role in February,” it says.
Data shows worldwide air cargo fell by 2.7 per cent in the first two months of 2020. In particular China and North East Asia (including Hong Kong) were hardest hit, with YoY drops of 7.3 and 7.8 per cent respectively.
The US was almost neutral, but Western Europe lost 5.0 per cent. The surprises came from South America (+6.8 per cent), Eastern Europe (+4.3 per cent) and South East Asia (+2.3 per cent). More than half of the 150 countries in WorldACD’s database showed growth, it adds.
For February by itself, overall volume was roughly the same YoY, but revenues (in USD) were 5.4 per cent lower. From Asia Pacific to Europe, revenues were down by 22 per cent YoY (to North America by 14.4 per cent YoY). However, revenues within Asia Pacific were up by 12 per cent YoY.
Outbound China (-26 per cent) showed large differences per region: The North and the Centre lost around 50 per cent YoY, but the South gained 19 per cent. Last year, cargo volumes from China started picking up roughly seven days after CNY. This year, we observe volumes did not start picking up until 17 days after CNY, and with a much slower build-up.
In terms of yield, from all major areas to Asia Pacific, yields in February (in USD) were much higher than in January: From Europe by 31 per cent, from North America by 19 per cent, from MESA by 24 per cent, from Africa by 18 per cent, and from Latin America by 25 per cent. And yet, the overall worldwide yield dropped by 2.0 per cent month-on-month.
WorldACD says that because of increasing demand for data, it put together a provisional February set in co-operation over the past nine days with some 60 airlines, together representing 80 per cent of the total worldwide business in its database.