Smaller vol decline, higher rev growth in Oct for Asia-Pac: WorldACD

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Once again the origin Asia Pacific bested volume ranks in October, falling ‘only’ -7.0 per cent year-on-year (YoY), but recording the highest global YoY increase of price/kg at +82.4 per cent, according to WorldACD Market Data.

Since the precipitous decline in world air cargo volumes by nearly 1/3 YoY in April 2020, WorldACD notes the sector has bounced back steadily, resulting in an October performance in kilograms of -11 per cent below October 2019, but a month-on-month (MoM) growth of +8.0 per cent above September 2020.

Airline revenues from air cargo are keeping on the growth track – up 48 per cent YoY – thanks to a still very high price per/kg, which has hovered between +60-67 per cent above last year (in USD) for the past four months. This culminated in an October increase of +66 per cent YoY and +4.3 per cent MoM.

WorldACD notes that all this happened with freighter capacity increasing by +5.0 per cent MoM, while cargo capacity on passenger aircraft grew by +11 per cent MoM. The load factors for the two aircraft types increased minimally over September by +2.0 and +1.0 per cent respectively.

Asia pricing
The MoM price increase ex-Asia Pacific was +9.4 per cent against a worldwide average of +4.0 per cent. In comparison the 2019 MoM increase ex-Asia Pacific was +5.5 per cent.

For the first 10 months of the year, Asia Pacific was the only region keeping its YoY volume loss in single digits at -9.8 per cent. This coincides with a record YoY revenue increase of +59 per cent, more than double the worldwide average of +29 per cent.

WorldACD notes the most striking fact is that the share in worldwide air cargo revenues, generated from business originating in the Asia Pacific countries, has gone up from 41 per cent in 2019 to 50 per cent in 2020.

The China factor
China receives the bulk of the attention of air cargo pundits these days, the data analytics company notes, with the country thriving in terms of air cargo price increases. This is witnessed by a MoM growth in price/kg (in USD) of +15.2 per cent compared to 2019’s MoM change of +10 per cent.

From China to Europe the MoM increase was even higher at +18.7 per cent (+14.8 per cent last year). Air cargo from China to North America attracted a price/kg of USD 5.11, while China to Europe averaged USD 4.33. The weekly trend in both markets is upward, which leads into a preliminary picture for the first half of November 2020, WorldACD says.

Worldwide, the kilograms transported in the period 1-15 Nov stood at 48 per cent of the October-total (from Asia Pacific 51 per cent, Europe & North America 47 per cent, Central & South America 46 per cent, Middle East & South Asia (MESA) 44 per cent, and Africa 42 per cent).

“In other words,” says WorldACD, “any MoM growth in November will have to come from the second half of the month. Weekly volumes in H1 Nov were more or less the same as in the last week of October.”

WorldACD Oct

Yields & rates
Yields/rates (per kg) continue their upward movement WorldACD says, with worldwide average going from USD 3.13 in the last week of October, through USD 3.25 in the first week of November to USD 3.28 in the second week of November. But in another perspective, this means the week-on-week (WoW) growth in week one was +3.9 per cent, while in week two it was much less at +0.9 per cent WoW.

And significantly, for the first time in many weeks, yields/rates from China dropped. While they were up by +3.8 per cent WoW in the first week of November, and by the second week they were down by -2.5 per cent WoW.

Specifically: China-Asia Pacific -9.5 per cent (at USD 2.20), China–Europe -0.9 per cent (at USD 5.08), China-North America -6.0 per cent (at USD 5.93).

Incoming business into Asia Pacific saw a downward trend with yields/rates dropping by -0.8 per cent WoW on average, while this figure was slightly up for all other destination regions.

The average load factors were slightly lower in the first two weeks of November than in October. WorldACD says it did not see a WoW change in last week’s data, except for the load factors ex-Europe which went up by more than +1.5 percentage points.

 

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